Air cargo rates rise 29% YoY in October despite lack of late demand surge

Xeneta reported that air cargo market growth remained steady in October, but traditional signs of a late-year surge in demand were absent. Despite this, global air cargo spot rates rose to $3.11 per kilogram in October, marking a 29% increase compared to the same month last year and a 4% increase from the previous month.

Spot rates increased across all 10 global corridors tracked by Xeneta, with the largest rise seen on the Transatlantic westbound trade lane. Europe to North America spot rates climbed 10% year over year to $2.31 per kilogram, driven by tighter capacity as carriers shifted to winter flight schedules.

In the Transpacific trade lane, shipments related to artificial intelligence contributed to demand growth. Chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to North America increased 15% year over year in October. Spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America reached $6.34 per kilogram, up 3% month over month, while rates from Northeast Asia to North America rose 4% to $6.21 per kilogram.

Looking ahead, Xeneta expects air freight rates to decline in 2027. Many shippers are postponing negotiations until early 2027, making forwarder price offers for 12-month deals less competitive due to market uncertainty. Capacity availability, rather than demand, has been the main driver of rate increases in recent years, according to Xeneta.

Xeneta noted that if markets such as the Middle East recover, a rebalancing of supply and demand could help lower rates, but the timing and location of such changes remain uncertain.