Demand for Australian coal and LNG exports could end before 2040

A new analysis by Climate Resource for WWF-Australia indicates that demand for Australia's coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports could effectively disappear before 2040 if its trading partners follow through on their energy transition plans and Paris Agreement commitments.

The report examines ambitious 1.5°C climate pathways and projects that Australia's fossil fuel industries could shrink to about 5% of current levels by 2050. Coal exports are expected to drop from around 362 million tonnes in 2024 to about 100 million tonnes by 2035, a decline of nearly three-quarters.

Thermal coal demand is projected to end first between 2034 and 2039, followed by metallurgical coal from 2042 to 2050, gas from 2037 to 2049, and oil from 2050 to 2067. The analysis emphasizes these timelines as plausible futures rather than exact predictions.

The report highlights that the global shift toward renewable energy, electrification, and lower-carbon industries is accelerating, which will impact Australia's fossil fuel exports. It suggests that Australian governments and industries should prepare for a planned exit from fossil fuels and transition to new industries involving workers and communities.

Dr. Anita Talberg, lead author of the report, noted that energy transitions in Asia and other regions are already changing forecasts for Australia's coal and gas exports, underscoring the need for Australia to develop its own transition roadmap.