Texas Senate race between Paxton and Talarico is a toss-up ahead of election

A recent CBS News poll finds the Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico essentially tied, with voter turnout expected to be decisive.

Paxton benefits from Texas' Republican leanings and support tied to backing former President Trump, while Talarico gains from voters concerned about the cost of living and perceptions of his character.

Economic issues are prominent, with many Texans reporting negative effects from rising prices; among these voters, Talarico holds a significant lead over Paxton.

Talarico also attracts some voters who typically do not support Democrats, while Paxton's support is bolstered by approval of Trump's deportation policies and concerns about cultural threats posed by Talarico's policies.

The poll indicates that Talarico must perform strongly with independents and sway some Republican voters or mobilize new voters to overcome the state's Republican majority.

The race remains highly competitive with the final outcome hinging on voter turnout and how economic and cultural issues influence voter decisions in the closing weeks.