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Poll shows Democrats lead by 8 points among likely voters before midterms

A new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll finds Democrats hold an 8-point lead overall and 13 points with independents.

Oct 28, 2026, 1:26 AM By the Genius Eye newsroom (Politics Reporter) · Fact-checkedHow we report
Photo: Rijksmuseum / CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

A recent poll conducted by PBS News/NPR/Marist reveals that Democrats currently hold an eight-point lead over Republicans among likely voters, according to PBS NewsHour Politics.

When including independent voters, the Democratic lead expands to 13 points, indicating a stronger position heading into the midterm elections.

Democrats also show higher voter enthusiasm, with 71 percent expressing strong motivation to vote, compared to 61 percent of Republicans and 48 percent of independents, as reported by PBS NewsHour.

Political analysts suggest that this enthusiasm and polling advantage position Democrats favorably to gain seats in the House, with historical trends supporting gains for the party leading in generic congressional ballots.

However, the Senate race presents more challenges for Democrats, as many Republican-held seats are in states that strongly supported former President Trump, making significant Democratic gains more difficult.

Overall, the poll indicates a likely advantage for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, though some caution remains about the scale of potential gains.

Sources
  1. PBS NewsHour Politics: Poll gauges voter enthusiasm for both parties a week before election
We read public reporting and official data, confirm what we can, and write our own story. See something wrong? Request a correction.

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