Thailand lowers 2026 tourist arrival forecast but hotel projects continue

Thailand has reduced its forecast for international tourist arrivals in 2026 from 36.7 million to 33 million, according to Skift. The government’s target for 2027 remains at "at least 33 million," maintaining a cautious outlook for visitor numbers next year.

Despite the lowered arrival projections, hotel developers and airlines are continuing to expand capacity. There are currently 167 hotel projects underway nationwide, with 67 in Bangkok and 44 in Phuket. In Phuket alone, about 5,517 new rooms are planned, with approximately 40% scheduled to open in 2027.

Tourist arrivals are currently averaging about 69,000 per day, which falls short of the roughly 114,000 daily arrivals needed to meet earlier forecasts. The performance of the tourism market is uneven, with Bangkok’s luxury hotels reportedly outperforming, while Phuket faces a wave of new hotel openings amid weaker demand.

This situation raises questions about the assumptions behind the continued expansion of hotel rooms and flights, especially given the shortfall in arrivals and competition from other destinations such as Vietnam, which offers visa-free access for European travelers.

Skift notes that the resilience of luxury demand and new source markets will be critical in delivering returns for investors in Thailand’s tourism sector moving forward.