Global warming rate roughly doubles since 2012, study finds

A recent analysis indicates that the global warming rate has approximately doubled since 2012, rising from 0.18°C per decade between 1970 and 2012 to 0.35°C per decade from 2012 to 2025, according to skepticalscience.com.

The acceleration in warming is linked to a substantial reduction in cooling aerosol pollution over the past two decades, while greenhouse gas emissions remain near record highs, creating a strong physical basis for the observed increase in temperature rise.

However, determining whether this acceleration is statistically significant remains challenging due to natural year-to-year climate variability. Different studies have reached varying conclusions depending on their methods and data adjustments.

For example, Beaulieu et al. (2024) found no detectable surge in warming through 2023 using a stringent test, while Foster and Rahmstorf (2026) detected acceleration with 98% confidence after adjusting for El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar variability.

A new paper by Jin and Pu argues that data through 2025 show a statistically significant doubling of the warming rate, though skepticalscience.com notes that their method may produce false positives in some simulated scenarios.

Overall, the debate continues on the best approach to detect warming acceleration, with recent data suggesting a notable increase in the rate of global temperature rise since 2012.